Sunday, October 22, 2006

I Heartily Concur

The best advice that John Murtha could ever get is found inside this Johnstown Tribune-Democrat article. Here's the advice:
Mae Richardson left no doubt that she will vote Republican on Nov. 7. "I think we should be (in Iraq). I’d rather fight them over there than here," said Richardson, who has had three of her children serve in the military. "Sometimes, I think (Murtha) should just keep his mouth shut."
This wouldn't be a race if Murtha hadn't shot his mouth off by convicting the Haditha Marines in the court of public opinion. He'd be leading by 15 points minimum had he "just kept his mouth shut." That he didn't is the biggest indicator that he's too arrogant for his own good. I can't say that I'm surprised, though. He's had so little competition that he's (a) started believing his press clippings and (b) gotten sloppy.

I'd compare him to an old grizzly who's been king of his section of wilderness who's suddenly confronted by a young, hungry bear who is his equal physically. The end result is predictable. The old bear looks formidable on the outside but doesn't have the muscles to defend himself. He isn't musclebound because he hasn't had the competition he now needs to defend himself.

Think of it this way: Murtha knows that he's in the fight of his life but because he's gotten flabby, he doesn't have the ability to defend himself. The outcome was sealed years before. It was just a beating waiting to happen.

Diana Irey is small of stature but I'll guarantee that she's all muscle where it counts. She's quite musclebound intellectually. In that respect, she's Murtha's superior. Intellectually, she's in shape; he isn't. Intellectually, she's sharp; Murtha's sloppy. She's hit him every time he's opened his mouth. Murtha's ignored her, thinking that ignoring her was the time-tested technique he needed to not publicize her.

As Bones and I have predicted, Diana will get upwards of 55% of the vote with an outside shot at 60%. I suspect that that'll be one of the first shockers called this election night.
With Republican challenger Diana Irey capitalizing on Murtha’s calls for a troop withdrawal from Iraq, there are two big questions in this campaign. How many Democrats will turn against Murtha? And will that number be high enough, especially on Irey’s home turf, to make a significant difference in a district designed to resemble a sprawling Democratic fortress?
It's worth noting that a significant number of PA-12 Democrats are the older 'Scoop Jackson/JFK' Democrats. PA-12 is also the source of alot of Reagan Democrats. I suspect that alot of Democratic war vets have already turned against Murtha, thanks to things like OSC. OSC is a cost-effective way to get the word out about your opponent. This worked this time because Murtha badmouthed the military and because he voted against most national security legislation. That's downright stupid, especially in wartime. It's even more stupid when the first war heroes in the GWOT died 12 miles from Murtha's hometown of Johnstown.

This is this year's perfect political storm. Murtha ran as a Pelosi liberal in a conservative Pennsylvania district. Murtha badmouthed the military in a district where 25-30% of registered voters are military personnel and their families. He's voted against every bit of legislation that would enhance our warfighting capabilities. That's before we consider the great GOP candidate we have in Diana Irey who's running one of the most efficient campaigns ever.

The end result will be 'V-I' day (Victory Irey Day) this November 7th.

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Cross-posted at California Conservative